TrueFreight Index (TFX) from Freight Right

The Freight Right TrueFreight Index (TFX) tracks global container shipping rates in real-time, ensuring accuracy through rigorous data validation and volume-weighted calculations. It aggregates pricing from logistics providers, filtering anomalies. Automated processes enhance objectivity, while ongoing reviews and audits ensure reliability, aligning with market trends and industry demands.

📊 Freight Market Update – Week of June 9, 2025 📊: Tariff Negotiations Continue, Spot Rates Fall, Demand Meeting Supply & More

📣 The Headline

Tariff negotiations continue between China and the US with each day bringing a tabloid-style headline of who is and isn’t winning negotiations. The last week brought us headlines about new negotiations beginning over rare earth materials, chip making software, natural gas and aircrafts with China playing hardball and then, just like that, playing defense before, again, back to hard ball. President Trump even commented that trade talks are “not easy”.

Spot rates have decreased from ~6,000 USD to ~4,000 USD as a result of additional ships provided by carriers and have made their way into circulation to address May’s massive demand. Importers, however, seem unfazed by the US/China drama. Importers don’t appear to be stopping their imports from China and all but expect tariffs to be part of the cost to import going forward.

📊 On the Market & Rates:

✅ Freight Rates Decreasing: Rates fell from over $6,000 USD to just above $4,000 USD due to increased carrier capacity and easing space constraints in China. Demand appears to be aligning with supply, leading to rate normalization.

✅ Importers Adjusting to New Tariff Reality: Despite ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, many importers now view a 20–30% tariff as the “new normal” and are no longer rushing to front-load shipments.

✅ Market Reaction is Muted: Importers are showing less urgency, potentially due to expectations that the situation won’t dramatically worsen and belief that a partial deal is inevitable.

📰 In the News:

WSJ: Lutnick Says U.S.-China Trade Talks 'Going Well': https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-trump-tariffs-trade-war-06-10-2025/card/lutnick-says-u-s-china-trade-talks-going-well--CTFJxZ1xgiZFuwgitJ5I?mod=djemlogistics_h
Morningstar: Canada, China Agree to Normalize Ties After Years of Testy Relations: https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202506064526/canada-china-agree-to-normalize-ties-after-years-of-testy-relations-update
Nasdaq: U.S. trade deficit takes a hit as tariffs reduce imports: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-trade-deficit-takes-hit-tariffs-reduce-imports
AP: China says its exports to the US fell 35% in May, as trade talks are due to start in London: https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-exports-trump-tariffs-a6f55570462e4ffce106698ef23ac7be

💡 Article of Interest:

Pundits have commented on and off but in louder volume since the Trump administration began in January that the world is deglobalizing and we, at this moment, are finished with globalization. While protectionism is certainly en vogue now, others would argue we, the world, hit peak globalization much sooner than 2025 and today’s protectionism is the result of a slow rising tide. By some estimates, globalization began its retreat following the 2008 recession: https://www.ft.com/content/26056f56-ebaf-4a68-8b73-fd3775921862

About the TrueFreight Index

Methodology

The Freight Right TrueFreight Index (TFX) is a benchmark designed to accurately reflect global container shipping rates by capturing real-time market fluctuations across carriers' spot, FAK, vessel and ratio rate data. Built on a foundation of transparency and data integrity, the index aggregates pricing information from multiple logistics providers, including freight forwarders and industry stakeholders.

To maintain accuracy, the index applies rigorous data validation techniques, filtering out anomalies and inconsistencies. It primarily relies on median spot rates for standard container shipments across key trade lanes. In cases of limited data availability, a structured methodology ensures completeness and reliability.

The index calculation follows a volume-weighted approach, where major trade routes with higher shipping activity exert greater influence on the final benchmark value. Automated processes eliminate bias, ensuring objectivity and consistency in rate determination.

Freight Right continuously enhances the index through regular reviews, quality control audits, and backtesting, ensuring it remains a reliable market indicator that aligns with industry trends and market demands.