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The Freight Right TrueFreight Index (TFX) tracks global container shipping rates in real-time, ensuring accuracy through rigorous data validation and volume-weighted calculations. It aggregates pricing from logistics providers, filtering anomalies. Automated processes enhance objectivity, while ongoing reviews and audits ensure reliability, aligning with market trends and industry demands.
Is importers' wait-and-see attitude changing? Signs point to yes.
Ocean rates look like they’re leveling off to their lowest levels in months, Trump appears to be taking a more selective approach to tariffs and US protectionist policy runs further back than most would think. Let’s get into it.
✅ Container Rates Hit Their Lowest In Over a Year: Rates stop their fall throughout March and settle out at the lowest rates over a year. CEA to USWC Spot rates have fallen to $1,400–$1,500 per container at cost, with selling rates around $1,700–$1,800 while CEA to USEC rates have dropped below $3,000 per container - nearly 50% lower than February levels, which were in the $5,500–$6,000 range.
✅ Importers Starting to Import: February and March was defined by shippers withholding shipments and taking a wait-and-see attitude to the Trump administration and other world government's tariff policies. With 2 weeks of slower news around tariffs, shippers are starting to ship again - albeit slowly. The read on the behavior is that shippers are beginning to come to terms that tariffs, period, will be part of the new normal going forward.
✅ April Expected to Bring Higher Rates: February and March were also uncharacteristically slow months for shipping. Carriers, in response, unleashed fire-sale prices to get spaces filled on ships but that trend won't last. Lines signaled in mid-March that low rates won't stay low forever and that increases were ahead in April. That appears to still be happening and shippers should prepare for increased costs from carriers.
Washington Post: Trump wants to build more ships in the United States. It’s not so simple.:https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/23/trump-shipbuilding-fees-china/
WSJ: Trump Might Exempt Some Nations From Reciprocal Tariffs: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/trump-plans-tariffs-on-countries-buying-energy-from-venezuela-0d89ff1c?mod=djemlogistics_h
Journal of Commerce: APM to spend $500 million to enhance cargo handling at Elizabeth terminal: https://www.joc.com/article/apm-to-spend-500-million-to-enhance-cargo-handling-at-elizabeth-terminal-5969027?mod=djemlogistics_h
The protectionist policies of the Trump administration carry several precedents in US domestic and international policy. Trump, himself, praised US president William McKinley as a model to follow with tariffs. See just how close the policy decisions are: https://jasonsteinhauer.substack.com/p/make-mckinley-great-again
The Freight Right TrueFreight Index (TFX) is a benchmark designed to accurately reflect global container shipping rates by capturing real-time market fluctuations across carriers' spot, FAK, vessel and ratio rate data. Built on a foundation of transparency and data integrity, the index aggregates pricing information from multiple logistics providers, including freight forwarders and industry stakeholders.
To maintain accuracy, the index applies rigorous data validation techniques, filtering out anomalies and inconsistencies. It primarily relies on median spot rates for standard container shipments across key trade lanes. In cases of limited data availability, a structured methodology ensures completeness and reliability.
The index calculation follows a volume-weighted approach, where major trade routes with higher shipping activity exert greater influence on the final benchmark value. Automated processes eliminate bias, ensuring objectivity and consistency in rate determination.
Freight Right continuously enhances the index through regular reviews, quality control audits, and backtesting, ensuring it remains a reliable market indicator that aligns with industry trends and market demands.
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