The end of March 2026 signaled a definitive splintering of the global trade system. The failure of the 14th World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference to extend the moratorium on ecommerce duties marks the end of an era of digital tax-free trade, effectively green-lighting digital borders. While the US continues to manage its trade through a 15% flat surcharge and targeted green-tech investigations, China has responded with its own sophisticated lawfare, investigating US barriers to its clean-energy exports. This week confirmed that the "consensus-based" model of the WTO is being replaced by a "multi-speed" trade world: one where a core group of 66 nations attempts to maintain digital rules, while major powers like the U.S. and China settle disputes through unilateral tariffs and domestic industrial investigations.
The freight market is experiencing a period of high volatility as carriers attempt to balance dwindling volumes against rising operational costs..
CEA to USWC: Rates have dipped slightly, now averaging between $1,800 and $1,900 per FEU.
CEA to USEC: Rates for the East Coast are currently holding between $2,800 and $2,900 per FEU.
In a departure from the traditional bi-weekly or monthly rate cycles, carriers are currently only releasing rates on a one-week basis. This ultra-short-term approach allows carriers to remain agile, either slightly lowering rates or extending previous ones to capture what little volume is available in the market.
Air freight, meanwhile, is breaking the $8.00/kilogram threshold, up from last week's $6-7.00/kilo and up from $4.00 in mid February.
While rates have dipped slightly week-to-week, importers, according to our TrueFreight Index, can still find rates as low as $1,650 China to US West Coast and $2,450 China to US East Coast. Talk to your current freight forwarder for options.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
The current rate environment is being shaped by a tug-of-war between low demand and geopolitical instability
Carrier Desperation for Volume: After attempting to jack up prices in late March, carriers saw volume vanish, forcing them to pivot and lower rates slightly to attract any available cargo.
Short-Term Rate Validity: By only committing to seven-day rate windows, carriers are protecting themselves against sudden spikes in fuel or further drops in demand.
Fuel Price Volatility: Unlike Air Freight, which feels the impact of oil prices almost immediately, Ocean Freight is seeing a delayed reaction due to existing bunker fuel stocks.
The industry is entering a high-stakes waiting game centered on mid-April. Carriers have already announced an Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS), tentatively scheduled to roll out around April 11th or 12th. However, there is significant internal hesitation among carriers regarding the implementation of this surcharge.
Carriers are currently trying to have it both ways, lowering base rates now to fill ships while keeping the EFS as a defensive go-ahead if fuel costs become untenable. If cargo volumes do not recover by the second week of April, carriers may be forced to further delay the EFS to avoid permanently turning off the few shippers still active in the market. Expect continued weekly rate updates as the industry monitors if and when factory activity returns to normal levels.
Bloomberg: A Winner in Early Trump Tariffs, Vietnam Thrives in Trade War 2.0
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-vietnam-trump-tariffs-supply-chain/
Reuters: US vows to seek WTO alternatives after Cameroon meeting fails to renew e-commerce moratorium
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/wto-suffers-fresh-blow-reform-push-hits-wall-cameroon-meeting-2026-03-30/
BBC: European Parliament gives conditional approval to EU-US trade deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c33l4e6vdrvo
WSJ: China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/china-initiates-probes-into-u-s-trade-practices-f02a8951
Reuters: US menus change as Trump's tariffs hit wine prices
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-menus-change-trumps-tariffs-hit-wine-prices-2026-03-30/
Understand why ocean freight rates are climbing despite record low volumes. Our March 2026 update covers the $600 rate hikes, new emergency fuel surcharges, and how blank sailings are impacting China-to-US shipping costs.
Transpacific ocean freight rates from China to the US West and East Coasts remained elevated week over week as carriers held firm through the holiday slowdown, positioning pricing ahead of Chinese New Year and upcoming contract season negotiations.
Weekly ocean freight update on China–US West and East Coast lanes as an early December GRI fades, leaving spot rates near November levels amid weak demand.
China-US freight rates dip to $1,520/FEU as carriers cut prices and blank sailings set up a $1,000 September GRI amid weak demand and tariff risks.
Freight Right leads in LAX customs brokerage, managing over 100K tons of air cargo annually. Discover our role in LAX’s cargo efficiency and compliance.
China–US ocean freight rates to the West and East Coasts held steady this week amid a holiday slowdown. Learn what’s driving the flat market and why January GRIs could push prices higher.
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