The transition into March 2026 marked the most significant administrative shift in U.S. trade history as the executive branch pivoted from country-specific "Reciprocal Tariffs" to a broad 15% global surcharge under Section 122. This shift was a direct response to the Supreme Court's invalidation of the IEEPA-based tariff authority, which has left the U.S. government facing potential refund claims exceeding $175 billion. While the new 15% flat rate offers a lower duty for countries like China and India compared to the previous regime, it represents a net increase for allies like the UK and Italy. Consequently, the global trade environment remains highly unstable, with the European Union threatening to reactivate retaliatory levies and the US Trade Representative preparing a fresh wave of industry-specific investigations to replace the temporary 150-day surcharge before it expires in July. All while the US began military activity in Iran late last week. It is still to be determined how, if at all, this conflict will impact global trade policy with the Trump administration or abroad.
The market is showing the first signs of post-holiday stabilization as Asia resumes operations. While rates have largely bottomed out at the breakeven levels established during the Lunar New Year, the anticipated post-holiday rate crash has not materialized, with pricing currently holding steady.
CEA to USWC: Rates have maintained their floor at approximately $1,450 to $1,500 per container. Despite a lack of upward pressure, there has been no further significant erosion in pricing this week.
CEA to USEC: East Coast rates continue to hold steady in the $2,400 to $2,500 range. The market remains balanced at these low levels as carriers prioritize volume recovery over aggressive price hikes.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
Post-Holiday Factory Resumption: Factories in China and Vietnam have officially reopened, though they are currently working through a backlog of existing orders rather than new demand.
Absence of Rate War: To the surprise of some analysts, carriers have not engaged in a significant "price war" to capture the first post-holiday shipments, allowing rates to stabilize at breakeven levels.
Low "Breadcrumb" Volumes: Current shipments consist primarily of leftover inventory, referred to as "breadcrumbs", from before the holiday shutdown, rather than a fresh surge of new orders.
Carrier Profitability Floor: At current levels, carriers are operating at or near cost. This has created a natural floor, as further reductions would lead to active losses that carriers are currently unwilling to absorb.
Air Freight Softening: Air freight rates have cooled significantly from January peaks, now settling into the $3.50 to $4.50 per kilogram range as space becomes more available post-holiday.
The market is entering a critical observation period. The next two to three weeks will reveal the true strength of the 2026 shipping season as the new order volume begins to hit the water.
Current projections suggest that rates will remain flat through the end of March. The major focal point for the industry is now the April/May contract season. Carriers are closely monitoring March volumes; if demand remains tepid, they may be forced to utilize more aggressive capacity management, such as extended blank sailings, to bolster their bargaining position for long-term contract negotiations. Shippers should expect a relatively stable, low-rate environment in the short term, with potential volatility returning in late spring.
WSJ: World Trade Surged in 2025 Despite Higher Tariffs
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/world-trade-surged-in-2025-despite-higher-tariffs-f122a534
BBC: What tariffs has Trump introduced and why?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn93e12rypgo
Global Trade Magazine: Port of LA Sees Stable Orders Amid Trade Policy Shifts
https://www.globaltrademag.com/port-of-la-sees-stable-orders-amid-trade-policy-shifts/
Reuters: US tariff lawsuits returned to trade court to determine next steps
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-tariff-lawsuits-returned-trade-court-determine-next-steps-2026-03-02/
CNN: Trump’s new tariffs might be illegal, but that may not ruin his tariff quest
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/01/business/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-section-122
Ocean freight rates from China to USWC have hit a breakeven low of $1,450 per container. As the Chinese New Year halts Asian manufacturing, explore why rates are falling, the impact of late-week bookings, and the outlook for March contract negotiation.
Transpacific ocean freight rates from China to the US West and East Coasts remained elevated week over week as carriers held firm through the holiday slowdown, positioning pricing ahead of Chinese New Year and upcoming contract season negotiations.
Transpacific ocean freight rates continue to decline as post-peak demand cools. China–US West Coast rates near $1,700, East Coast around $2,600 per FEU.
Ocean rates hold steady at $1,400-$1,600 for USWC as China’s pre-holiday shipping window closes. Explore the impact of high trucking costs and the upcoming total market shutdown.
China–US ocean freight rates to the West and East Coasts held steady this week amid a holiday slowdown. Learn what’s driving the flat market and why January GRIs could push prices higher.
Ocean rates remain frozen at $1,400-$1,600 to the USWC as the Lunar New Year shutdown halts all Chinese logistics. Discover why the market is at a standstill and what to watch for in March.
Ocean freight rates from China to the US hit new lows as Chinese New Year approaches. With USWC rates falling to $1,600 and carriers selling space at cost, discover what's driving the market downturn and the outlook for February 2026
China–US ocean freight rates fall as carriers discount to fill space. CEA-USWC down $400-$500; CEA-USEC near $2,800. See what’s driving the drop and what’s next.
Transpacific ocean freight rates dropped sharply this week as weak import demand and the Thanksgiving holiday slowdown pushed China–US West and East Coast spot prices to new lows. Get the latest market drivers and outlook.
Small December GRIs lift China–USWC and China–USEC rates slightly, but overcapacity, soft demand, and tariff uncertainty continue to cap meaningful recovery. Outlook steady through Chinese New Year with brief January strength.