Global trade policy developments reflected a mix of caution and continued pressure from tariffs. The United States signaled a temporary easing of tensions with China by delaying new semiconductor tariffs, even as broader analyses emphasized how elevated U.S. tariff levels throughout 2025 have reshaped global trade flows. Spillover effects were evident in Europe, where diverted Chinese exports raised concerns about competition and inflation dynamics, particularly in the United Kingdom. At the same time, India paused proposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar modules, highlighting legal and policy constraints around trade remedies, while expectations of new US tariffs taking effect in early 2026 pointed to ongoing cost pressures for importers and consumers.
CEA to USWC (China to US West Coast): Week over week, rates were largely flat at elevated levels, holding in the $2,800–$3,000/FEU range. There was little transactional movement due to the holiday slowdown, but importantly, rates did not soften, signaling carriers’ success in defending recent increases despite weak volumes.
CEA to USEC (China to US East Coast): Rates to the East Coast also remained stable WoW, hovering around $3,500–$3,700/FEU depending on service and routing. As with the West Coast, minimal bookings activity meant few data points, but carriers maintained pricing discipline rather than chasing volume.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
Global holiday lull suppressing activity: This week was even quieter than last, with Christmas and year-end holidays effectively freezing global freight movement. China closures toward the end of the week further reduced activity, creating a “dead week” for bookings.
Rates holding despite weak demand: Normally, this level of inactivity would pressure carriers to discount. Instead, ocean carriers are holding firm, prioritizing rate integrity over short-term volume.
Chinese New Year pricing strategy already in play: Carriers are positioning January as a pre–Chinese New Year peak window, aiming to keep rates elevated through all of January rather than allowing an early dip.
Contract season looming: With annual contract negotiations approaching in March–April, carriers are highly motivated to keep spot rates elevated now. A higher Q1 average strengthens their negotiating leverage with BCOs later in the year.
Muted underlying cargo demand: Unlike traditional pre-CNY surges, shippers are not signaling strong January volumes. Consumer spending uncertainty and inventory caution continue to cap demand expectations.
That said, these levels are not structurally sustainable. Once Chinese New Year passes and the calendar flips toward late February, downward pressure should re-emerge. A post-Chinese New Year correction is likely, but the floor may settle higher than last year, potentially in the $1,900–$2,100/FEU range, reflecting carriers’ efforts to permanently raise the baseline ahead of 2026 contracting.
Reuters: Commodities buffeted by Trump whirlwind seek relief in 2026
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/commodities-buffeted-by-trump-whirlwind-seek-relief-2026-2025-12-30/
Bloomberg: The ‘Year of the Tariff’ Gives Way to 2026 Worries of the Consequences
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-12-24/2026-risks-for-global-trade
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https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/indias-domination-global-rice-trade-stokes-looming-water-crisis-2025-12-30/
Global Trade Magazine: World Container Index Climbs for Fourth Consecutive Week
https://www.globaltrademag.com/world-container-index-climbs-for-fourth-consecutive-week/
The New York Times: Trump Promised Radical Change in His Second Term. Here’s What He’s Done So Far.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/27/us/politics/trump-second-term-promises-actions.html
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