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  • Flat Week for Ocean Freight as China’s Golden Week Pauses Trade Flows - TFX Update wk. October 6, 2025

Flat Week for Ocean Freight as China’s Golden Week Pauses Trade Flows - TFX Update wk. October 6, 2025

October 07, 2025

The Lead:

During the week of September 30 to October 6, 2025, global trade policy saw a flurry of protectionist moves, especially from the U.S. and the European Union. The U.S. expanded its tariff regime by imposing a 10 % duty on wood imports and delaying cabinet/furniture tariffs, and then announced a significant 25 % tariff on medium and heavy trucks beginning November 1. Meanwhile, the EU made bold moves in the steel sector, slashing import quotas and proposing a 50 % tariff on steel that exceeds those quotas. Amid these developments, India extended export support measures and Brazil sought relief from U.S. tariffs through high-level diplomacy. Observers in Europe, such as Thomas Piketty, urged a rethinking of free-trade doctrine in light of growing global trade volatility. In sum, this week reinforced a trend toward more aggressive tariff activism and growing friction in the international trading system.

On Markets & Rates:

CEA to USWC (China to U.S. West Coast): Flat week-over-week. No meaningful price movement reported amid China’s Golden Week shutdown.

CEA to USEC (China to U.S. East Coast): Flat week-over-week. Same story as the West Coast: muted booking activity and unchanged spot levels.

Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index (TFX) is tracking the following rates this week. Graphics below illustrate current FEU trends only.

Week of October 6, 2025:

  • CEA/USEC 20FT $2381.09

  • CEA/USEC 40FT $2865.84

  • CEA/USEC 40HC $2865.84

  • CEA/USWC 20FT $1592.88

  • CEA/USWC 40HC $1959.48

  • CEA/USWC 40FT $1954.52

This Week Explained:

  • Golden Week pause: China’s holiday kept factories closed and bookings light, leaving spot markets essentially unchanged on both coasts.

  • Muted retail catalysts: Even with Amazon’s October event, we didn’t see the usual shipper urgency or pull-forward signals that typically nudge rates—another sign of a very quiet week.

  • Short post-holiday runway: With China only returning late in the week and many factories not fully back until next Monday, there wasn’t enough time for rate action or GRIs to stick.

  • Low probability of near-term upside: Market participants characterize it as “quite impossible” for rates to move up in the immediate term given soft demand.

Looking Ahead:

For the remainder of October, we're expecting a sideways market through the second half of October as production ramps gradually post-holiday and demand remains tepid; carriers lack justification for near-term GRIs on CEAto USWC/USEC.

Bias remains down/flat rather than up without a clear demand catalyst, any bounce looks unlikely. Monitor whether factory restarts next week translate into incremental bookings; if not, softening could re-emerge into late October.

We’re advising importers on three things to watch. The first is the post-Golden Week booking pace from core origins; second, any surprise retail promotions that actually trigger pull-forwards; and third is carrier capacity actions - only meaningful blankings would alter the near-term trajectory.

In the News:

Splash247: Carriers blank sailings at pandemic pace to prop up rates: https://splash247.com/carriers-blank-sailings-at-pandemic-pace-to-prop-up-rates/

The Loadstar: Forwarders eye growing ecommerce – but players want lift, not logistics: https://theloadstar.com/forwarders-eye-growing-ecommerce-but-players-want-lift-not-logistics/

WSJ: Sharpie Found a Way to Make Pens More Cheaply—By Manufacturing Them in the U.S.: https://www.wsj.com/business/sharpie-us-production-cost-cutting-d9ba2abd (archive link: https://archive.ph/h7QvU)

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