Carriers Rollback September's GRI and Competition Among Forwarders Heats Up - TFX Update wk. September 15, 2025

The Lead:

The week was dominated by legal, retaliatory, and coordination signals rather than broad new tariff slates. In Washington, the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to hear tariff cases put the legal foundations of 2025 measures under the microscope, while the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) advanced process steps, notably a fresh Section 301 comment window on China, that could recalibrate future tariff scopes. Beijing escalated a major retaliation against the EU with steep anti-dumping duties on pork, as Brussels quietly tuned its trade-defense rulebook via Official Journal corrections.

In London, the TRA’s imports dashboard underscored the UK’s trade-defense posture. Geopolitically, the Treasury's warning that Europe must act first on tariff pressure tied to Russian oil highlighted the trans-Atlantic bargaining around using tariffs as a sanctions tool. Meanwhile, U.S./China talks yielded a TikTok framework amid wider tariff discussions, and the WTO’s fisheries-subsidy pact finally took effect, one of the few multilateral bright spots in an otherwise fragmenting trade landscape.

On Markets & Rates:

For CEA/USWC (China to U.S. West Coast): Spot levels rolled back to roughly $1,500–$1,600/FEU on basic services after carriers unwound early-September GRIs. That’s a sharper week-over-week drop from last week’s broadly quoted $1,800–$2,400/FEU, with some market sell rates now centering closer to $1,600–$1,900 depending on service and cut-off windows.

For CEA/USEC (China to U.S. East Coast): Pricing has compressed into a $2,400–$2,500/FEU band. Compared with last week’s $2,200–$2,700/FEU quotes, the midpoint is slightly lower and the spread is tighter as carriers chase volume and trim surcharges.

Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index (TFX) is tracking the following rates this week. Graphics below illustrate current FEU trends only.

Week of September 15, 2025:

• CEA/USEC 20FT $2732.92

• CEA/USEC 40FT $3279.78

• CEA/USEC 40HC $3279.78

• CEA/USWC 20FT $1924.28

• CEA/USWC 40HC $2360.15

• CEA/USWC 40FT $2355.13

Week of September 8, 2025:

• CEA/USEC 20FT $2633.8

• CEA/USEC 40FT $3192.4

• CEA/USEC 40HC $3192.4

• CEA/USWC 20FT $1859.95

• CEA/USWC 40HC $2321.07

• CEA/USWC 40FT $2312.23

This Week Explained:

• September GRI rolled back to grab volume. In a very rare move emblematic of the times, carriers skipped planned mid-September “tiers” and reversed most of the $600–$800/FEU hikes pushed earlier this month, prioritizing load factors over price ahead of China’s early-October holiday shutdown.

• Demand continues to rapidly fade. Peak-season bookings continue to fade week over week. Frontloading earlier in the summer plus tariff-driven whiplash left fewer urgent shipments for late September.

• Price war among forwarders leads to true fights for survival. China-based NVOs holding carrier contracts are selling FAK at or near cost to hit MQCs and protect next-quarter tiers, dragging spot levels down and squeezing U.S. forwarders’ margins.

• Contract flexibility points to a bear market. In another very rare move, select carriers are allowing shippers to pause contract obligations without penalties, an unusual, clear tell that they don’t expect a late-Q3 rebound. A shared sense of survivalism is taking hold between carriers, contract holders and freight forwarders as the size of pie of available importers continues to shrink.

• Golden Week timing. With only a short runway before factory and port slowdowns, carriers are prioritizing certainty of lift today over rate discipline they’re unlikely to sustain in mid-October.

Looking Ahead:

Expect carriers to test the ceiling for another few days; if liftings don’t materialize, look for methodical trims over the next 1-3 weeks. A plausible near-term landing zone is the high-$1,700s to low-$1,800s per container, still well above August levels but below today’s post-GRI peak, barring a late surge in orders. Importers with flexibility may benefit from waiting a week to reassess; those with fixed weekly flow or holiday-critical inventory should budget for today’s premiums while pressing for sub-market allotments where available. If carriers remain stubborn on price into mid-September without volume response, expect a very flat, quiet market thereafter as the pre-holiday window closes.

In the News:

WSJ: The New Pitfall of Online Shopping: A Surprise Tariff Bill: https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/the-new-pitfall-of-online-shopping-a-surprise-tariff-bill-bc4f333f mod=mw_quote_news&gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAj9fLAAqtF3bTSV9nbaila4mk3pCtA7JAyR3OfnQCLTdx7hK7wwnK4sG48th8U%3D&gaa_ts=68c9b560&gaa_sig=gocoUCRcgU4OLHtTk-4PvaiSUZfJ_qYvYIJLUgJmdnTRnW7vZbYjOIsgQGbCCnG1BfrOFsDEtirmnnXGBz21Tg%3D%3D

MarineInsight: Empty Containers Now Make Up 41% of Global Shipping- New Report: https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/empty-containers-now-make-up-41-of-global-shipping-new-report/

TransportTopics: US Tariff of 15% on Japan Auto Exports Kicks In Today: https://www.ttnews.com/articles/us-tariff-15-japan-autos

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