Another week of rock bottom spot market prices, trade policy changes and timid importers. It's officially Groundhog Day in the frieght markets.
The week opened with Brussels pausing its US-focused countermeasures while Washington finalized the rulebook for its revamped reciprocal tariffs, including a 40% anti-transshipment penalty. Commerce advanced several trade-remedy actions, and on Aug. 6 the White House added a further 25% tariff on Indian goods (effective Aug. 27), escalating tensions even as the broader U.S. reciprocal tariff schedule took effect on Aug. 7. The WTO raised its near-term trade forecast but cautioned that the very tariff increases implemented this week would dampen flows later in the year. The period ended with a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff pause, maintaining the 10% reciprocal rate on China and averting an immediate escalation.
Transpacific ocean rates held largely steady this past week. CEA/USWC saw a repeat of last week: low spot quotes edged down about $50 w/w to roughly $1,550-$1,600/FEU on the lowest side (with some lows still near $1,500). August GRIs didn’t stick, and carriers are trimming sailings to stem further erosion. CEA/USEC also saw a repeat of last week. Flat to slightly softer w/w at about $2,600–$2,700/FEU on the lowest end from some carriers. Capacity adjustments are visible here too, but demand remains too soft for any meaningful rate lift.
Week of August 11, 2025:
CEA/USEC 20FT $2374.02
CEA/USEC 40HC $2885.57
CEA/USEC 40FT $2885.57
CEA/USWC 20FT $1583.48
CEA/USWC 40FT $1955.97
CEA/USWC 40HC $1984.44
Week of August 4, 2025:
CEA/USEC 20FT $2542.41
CEA/USEC 40FT $3125.14
CEA/USEC 40HC $3125.14
CEA/USWC 20FT $1628.72
CEA/USWC 40FT $1990.42
CEA/USWC 40HC $1990.42
Tariff clock reset, urgency gone: The 90-day extension of the 30% China baseline tariff removed the near-term “load now” deadline. A few shippers had paused bookings awaiting the decision; once confirmed, they resumed at prior cadence, not a surge.
Peak-season déjà vu - still muted: Importers have rebased their volumes to reflect tariff-era economics (e.g., from ~10 FCLs/week pre-tariffs to 2-4/week now). That keeps aggregate demand subdued despite the calendar.
GRIs fizzled; capacity getting pulled: Attempts to lift rates in early August failed in a soft market. Lines are blanking sailings and pruning loops to match supply to demand, which is stabilizing West Coast levels but not lifting them.
Pre-decision wobble only, not a wave: Some carriers reported a brief booking bump last week from shippers worried the extension might not come. Once the extension landed, the market reverted to “steady/slack.”
Profit pressure at the floor: With USWC lows ~$1.5-1.6k/FEU, carriers are hovering near contribution margins; they’re unlikely to slash deeper without more capacity action hence the current blanking.
Sideways-to-soft through the rest of August as confidence (not demand) stabilizes under the new 90-day window. Expect pockets of tightness around blank sailings and roll pools, but broad rate momentum remains limited.
On rates CEA/USWC’s low spot likely holds in the $1.5k–$1.8k/FEU range unless carriers accelerate cuts or a fresh policy shock hits. Any uptick will be modest and uneven, tied to capacity management more than demand. CEA/USEC’s low spot, $2.6k–$3.0k/FEU, will likely continue into August with mild firmness possible if lines shift more capacity off the longer transit lane. Still, muted import programs cap upside.
A small late-Aug/September pickup is plausible (holiday top-ups), but far from a classic peak. The tariff environment has structurally lowered run-rates; think incremental bumps, not breakouts.
Bigger picture, faster capacity withdrawals that over-tighten certain weeks, policy volatility that reintroduces deadline front-loading and operational hiccups (port congestion, weather) that create short, local price flares without changing the overall soft trend are likely to continue through August.
Linkdin News: Here's how On sneakers beat tariffs: https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/heres-how-on-sneakers-beat-tariffs-6497868/
CNBC: Trump extends China tariff deadline by 90 days: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trump-china-tariffs-deadline-extended.html
The White House: Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Continues the Suspension of the Heightened Tariffs on China: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-continues-the-suspension-of-the-heightened-tariffs-on-china/
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