Blank Sailings and Rollovers Dominate May Freight Market - TFX Update wk. May 4, 2026

The Lead:

The turn of the month in May 2026 signaled a definitive move toward a centralized trade architecture in the US and a multipolar landscape elsewhere. The provisional launch of the EU-Mercosur agreement represented a major victory for European industrial and agricultural sectors, providing a vital hedge against rising US protectionism. Simultaneously, China’s total elimination of tariffs for 53 African nations solidified a new South-South trade axis designed to secure resources outside of Western influence. While the US formalized its "America First” agenda, using 100% pharma duties and 15% surcharges to force domestic onshoring, the IMF warned that these fragmented trade policies are creating fault lines that threaten to stall global growth for the remainder of the year.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market is currently characterized by relative rate stability compared to the end of April, despite significant operational shifts.

CEA to USWC: rates are still holding at approximately $2,600-$2,800 range per FEU.

CEA to USEC: Rates to USEC on the other hand, are hovering between $3,700-$3,900.

These figures include the implementation of Emergency Fuel Surcharges that kicked in at the start of the month.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,500 from China to US West Coast and $3,550 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Rollover Risks: While space is technically available to book, the reduction in vessel capacity means a high percentage of shipments are being rolled to subsequent weeks.

• Operational Overloading: To compensate for fewer ships, carriers are overloading active vessels, sometimes forcing unplanned discharges at intermediate ports like Busan to lighten the load for the transpacific crossing.

• Labor Day Holiday: The market experienced a lull in movement this week due to the Labor Day holiday in China, with many businesses closed until May 6th.

• Blank Sailing Surges: Carriers are aggressively pulling vessels out of circulation, with blank sailings occurring at a higher frequency than in April.

Looking Ahead:

The outlook for the remainder of May suggests continued volatility in transit reliability even if rates remain stable. Shippers should expect the overloading trend to persist as carriers manage capacity through tactical blank sailings. This will likely lead to longer lead times and unpredictable routing changes, such as the new trend of transshipment through Busan for traditionally direct China-to-LA routes. Furthermore, if oil prices do not retreat, the market may see another round of rate hikes or increased surcharges across both ocean and air modes before the end of the month.

In the News:

Bloomberg: A New Contest for Global Influence Is Emerging in the Caucasus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-04/china-to-russia-us-and-eu-chase-trade-mineral-stakes-in-caucasus

New York Times: President Threatens E.U. With Higher Car Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/01/us/trump-news

Financial Times: How the Trump-Xi threats of trade war softened into a quieter rivalry
https://www.ft.com/content/27bb8e7b-c4f3-4c83-9952-dd140f6ba794?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Reuters: Global trade group SEMI sees robust demand for chips despite geopolitical risks
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/southeast-asia-needs-expand-semiconductor-production-global-trade-group-semi-2026-05-05/

CNBC: Trump says he’s raising EU auto tariffs to 25%
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/trump-eu-auto-tariffs.html

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