The second week of May 2026 saw a significant shift toward a multipolar landscape as the US judicial system dismantled the administration's latest attempt at a centralized trade architecture. The US Court of International Trade’s ruling that the 10% global surcharge was illegal has created a vacuum in American trade enforcement, forcing a wave of appeals and a scramble for new legal justifications. Meanwhile, the G7 formalized a united front against industrial overcapacity, and China solidified its South-South trade axis by offering zero-tariff access to nearly the entire African continent. As the World Trade Organization (WTO) prepares to potentially revive its digital trade moratorium, the week concluded with a global trade system that is increasingly defined by regional safe harbors and a fierce competition for the loyalty of emerging markets.
The ocean freight market is experiencing a significant upward shift in pricing as we move into the second half of May. While the first half of the month saw rates hovering in the mid-to-high $2,000 range, a new round of rate increases is pushing the market toward higher thresholds.
CEA to USWC: Rates are currently running around $2,600 – $2,800, but are projected to increase by $300 – $400, bringing the market rate to the $3,000+ level as of May 15.
CEA to USEC: Rates are showing even stronger upward pressure. Currently positioned at approximately $4,400, they are expected to climb higher as carriers implement mid-month adjustments.
Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,600 from China to US West Coast and $3,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
Post-Holiday Backlog: The rush to move cargo before the May 1st long holidays in China created a temporary surge in demand that is now filtering through the ocean pricing models.
Carrier Rate Hikes: Ocean carriers are filing for another round of rate increases for the second half of May, aiming to capitalize on stabilized volumes.
Air Freight Divergence: Unlike ocean freight, air freight rates have dropped post-holiday due to a decrease in urgent demand. This has created a rare scenario where air is cooling while the ocean is heating up.
The immediate outlook suggests a period of low volume but high cost. As rates climb toward the mid-$3,000s for the West Coast and mid-$4,500s for the East Coast, the increased cost of entry is expected to further dampen shipping volumes through the end of May.
However, the optimistic view for June hinges on the aforementioned tax and duty refunds. If importers reinvest their IEEPA refund capital into new inventory, the market could see a contrarian spike in demand despite the higher freight rates. For now, shippers should prepare for a tightening market where margin management becomes more critical than volume chasing.
Bloomberg: Trump Appeals Latest Legal Setback to His Tariff Regime Rollout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/trump-s-latest-10-tariffs-declared-unlawful-by-us-trade-court
The Washington Post: Court rules against the tariff Trump enacted after Supreme Court defeat
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/05/07/tariffs-trade-court-ruling-trump/
Financial Times: ‘Worst’ still ahead as oil price swings darken global trade outlook
https://www.ft.com/content/9ad38fc0-24bd-4378-997c-4dc215a9a7fd?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Reuters: What are China's current tariffs on US energy and agriculture goods
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-are-chinas-current-tariffs-us-energy-agriculture-goods-2026-05-12/
WSJ: Trump Delays Move to Lower Tariffs on Beef Imports
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-clears-way-for-more-beef-imports-aiming-to-bring-down-record-high-prices-acf83faa
CBP’s latest IEEPA tariff refund update shows $35.46B in anticipated refunds and interest. Learn what importers should do now to claim eligible refunds.
China–US freight rates drop again: $1,400 to West Coast, $2,300 to East Coast, as carriers cut prices before September hikes.
Transpacific ocean freight rates continue to decline as post-peak demand cools. China–US West Coast rates near $1,700, East Coast around $2,600 per FEU.
Ocean rates hold steady at $1,500 for USWC as Chinese factories reopen. Explore why the post-holiday rate war never arrived and what this means for April contract negotiations.
The Supreme Court’s landmark IEEPA tariffs ruling strikes down major duties. Learn how this decision impacts Section 301 and 232 tariffs and how to claim refunds.
Transpacific ocean freight rates dropped sharply this week as weak import demand and the Thanksgiving holiday slowdown pushed China–US West and East Coast spot prices to new lows. Get the latest market drivers and outlook.
Ocean rates hold at $1,450-$1,500 for USWC as Chinese factories reopen. Explore why the post-holiday rate crash didn't happen and what to expect for the March recovery.
China–US ocean freight rates to the West and East Coasts held steady this week amid a holiday slowdown. Learn what’s driving the flat market and why January GRIs could push prices higher.
Discover why ocean carriers are shifting to weekly rate cycles, the status of the upcoming Emergency Fuel Surcharge, and current rate benchmarks for China to US East and West Coasts.
Weekly ocean freight update on China–US West and East Coast lanes as an early December GRI fades, leaving spot rates near November levels amid weak demand.