Carriers Cut Rates at Month-End, Importers Scramble to Book Before GRI - TFX Update: wk. August 25, 2025

The Lead:

During the past week, US trade policy took a decidedly more aggressive turn, marked by a sweeping expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs and an escalation in the WTO dispute mechanism, most notably with Brazil. Simultaneously, negotiations with the European Union continued in a more diplomatic but loosely formalized manner, while major stakeholders sounded alarms over the broader economic fallout. Analysts and trade experts alike painted a sobering picture: the era of strong, multilateral trade governance is under threat, with fragmentation, revenue-driven protectionism, and tethered regional blocs emerging as defining characteristics of the global trading landscape.

On Markets & Rates:

CEA/USWC (China-US West Coast): Spot rates eased to a little over $1,400/FEU, roughly $100 lower week-over-week as carriers cut late-August prices to attract last-minute loads. CEA/USEC (China - US East Coast): Spot rates slipped to ~$2,300/FEU, also down about $100 WoW on similar late-month discounting.

TrueFreight Index (TFX) is tracking the following rates this week. Graphics below illustrate current FEU trends only.

Week of August 25, 2025:

• CEA/USEC 20FT $2248.01

• CEA/USEC 40FT $2733.66

• CEA/USEC 40HC $2733.66

• CEA/USWC 20FT $1444.89

• CEA/USWC 40FT $1785.08

• CEA/USWC 40HC $1797.8

Week of August 18, 2025:

• CEA/USEC 20FT $2281.37

• CEA/USEC 40FT $2778.65

• CEA/USEC 40HC $2778.65

• CEA/USWC 20FT $1472.58

• CEA/USWC 40FT $1818.61

• CEA/USWC 40HC $1832.23

This Week Explained:

• End-of-month push by carriers: Lines trimmed prices further in the last week of August to pull forward bookings, with reductions communicated on short notice. Some shippers captured deals; others may have missed the window.

• Capacity discipline continues: Despite price cuts, carriers are blanking sailings this week, next week, and likely the following week, tightening effective supply even as they stimulate demand.

• Laddered GRI playbook in view: Carriers are signaling a September GRI (~$2,300–$2,400 USWC; ~$3,400 USEC), typically launched high for a few days before stepping down as mid-month demand softens.

• Muted peak-season sentiment: Market levels are at or below late-summer 2024 and even below late-Aug/Sept 2023, underscoring soft demand and conservative holiday expectations across importers and retailers.

Looking Ahead:

Early September reset, then drift: Expect a GRI in early September to lift USWC toward $2,300–$2,400 and USEC higher, but history suggests rapid give-backs within days, with levels likely settling around $1,500–$1,600/FEU to USWC by late September (still ~$200 above today).

October lull, then a Chinese New Year mini-peak: With most holiday freight already decided, October volumes look thin; seasonality then points to a brief pre-Chinese New Year bump as factories ship before extended closures, typically in early January.

Watch tariffs and sentiment: If US-China tariff policy eases into mid-November, it could add a modest late-year and January tailwind to bookings alongside the Chinese New Year rush.

In the News:

WSJ: Trump Vows to Retaliate Over Taxes on Tech Giants: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-26-2025/card/trump-vows-to-retaliate-over-taxes-on-tech-giants-4Qz56aAgUWs6WC1kFEhX?mod=djemlogistics_h

Bloomberg: US Takes Steps to Hit India With 50% Tariff From Wednesday: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-25/trump-administration-notice-signals-50-tariff-to-hit-india-soon?mod=djemlogistics_h

CNBC: Canada drops many of its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/canada-retaliatory-tariffs-trump-autos-steel.html

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