Carriers Defend Ocean Floors as Holiday Ocean Demand Subsides and Air Cargo Soars - TFX Update wk. November 9, 2026

Key Takeaways

• Ocean rates soften. Actual China–US booking rates are around $6,000–$6,300 per container to the West Coast and the low $7,000s to the East Coast.

• Space opens up. Easing holiday demand improves availability, though some discounted services carry risks of rolled bookings and schedule changes.

• Carriers defend pricing. Rates may gradually ease through December, with carriers potentially seeking increases ahead of Lunar New Year.

• Air freight stays tight. Indicative rates reach $8.50–$9.00/kg to the West Coast and $9.50–$10.00/kg to JFK, with daily pricing changes and limited space.

The Lead:

The first full week of November 2026 saw crossborder trade adapt to shifting tariff rules as Canadian officials rolled out expanded tariff relief through mid-2028 to exempt essential US manufacturing and agricultural inputs from counter-tariffs. In the United States, importers worked through the latest reshuffling of 50% Section 338 duties on Canadian products while corporate legal teams mounted broader challenges against the administration’s authority to bypass USMCA terms.

At the same time, customs operations reached an administrative milestone as CBP wrapped up its formal comment period on court-ordered IEEPA refund procedures, keeping pressure on businesses to track entry liquidations while preparing for the looming January 1 automotive tariff threat.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Ocean freight rates continue to stabilize with a slight downward drift, moving as expected with minimal volatility across the major lanes. While standard published market benchmark rates technically sit just below $8,000 for the US West Coast and range between $9,000 and $10,000 for the US East Coast, virtually no cargo is currently booking at those levels. Instead, actual moving rates are dictated by carrier promotional discounts and volume-based pricing as space across Asian origin ports continues to open up.

CEA to USWC: Rates have settled into the $6,000 to $6,300 range (low $6,000s) per container, holding stable with slight downward movement as demand tapers off following the primary peak shipping push. Standard market rates remain sub-$8,000 on paper, but effective booking levels reflect aggressive volume discounts.

CEA to USEC: Rates have softened into the low $7,000 per container, maintaining their typical East Coast spread over the West Coast while seeing nominal week-over-week decreases. Rates continue to linger in the $9,000 to $10,000 range, though actual transactions are clearing well below those benchmarks via carrier spot promotions.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $6,000 from China to US West Coast and $7,000 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

A Closer Look:

• Holiday ocean demand is easing. Much of the seasonal cargo has already shipped, reducing competition for vessel space and allowing rates to soften.

• Space is more readily available. Freight Right’s partners in Asia report that bookings are easier to secure, with no broad space shortage on the lanes discussed.

• Carriers continue to offer promotional pricing. Discounts and volume-based offers are keeping bookable rates below standard quoted levels.

• Some low-priced services carry reliability risks. Rolled bookings and schedule changes remain an issue on certain aggressively priced services. Storms and congestion at earlier ports can also disrupt vessel arrivals and departures.

• Carriers are trying to limit further declines. As demand slows, carriers are seeking to maintain rate levels ahead of a potential pre-Lunar New Year increase in January.

Looking Ahead:

Ocean freight activity is expected to slow further through late November and December, supporting a broadly stable to gradually softer rate outlook. Improved space availability should give importers more booking flexibility, although the lowest price may come with greater schedule uncertainty.

Carriers are expected to resist deeper reductions and may attempt to raise rates in January ahead of Lunar New Year shipping demand. For now, importers should compare sailing reliability alongside price and confirm departure schedules before committing time-sensitive cargo.

China-US Air Freight Market:

Air freight remains tight and volatile as late holiday shipments compete for limited capacity. Indicative China-to-US West Coast rates were approximately 8.50–9.00 per kilogram, while China-to-JFK pricing was roughly 9.50–10.00 per kilogram, subject to space availability. Rates can change daily, and quoted space may disappear before a booking is confirmed.

Shippers with urgent cargo should agree on a booking budget and authorize a defined price adjustment in advance, potentially around 0.50-1.00 per kilogram, to help avoid delays while teams seek approval across time zones.

In the News:

Reuters: Companies risk fines of 6% global turnover for unfair digital trade practices, EU draft law shows
https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/companies-risk-fines-6-global-turnover-unfair-digital-trade-practices-eu-draft-2026-11-09/

ABC News: Trump set to impose sweeping tariffs on 60 trade partners
https://abcnews.com/Business/trump-set-impose-sweeping-tariffs-60-trade-partners/story?id=135020049

Trading View: MATX Q3 2026 deep dive: China service demand, port congestion, and ecommerce lift results
https://www.tradingview.com/news/stockstory:6966019fb094b:0-matx-q3-2026-deep-dive-china-service-demand-port-congestion-and-e-commerce-lift-results/

CNBC: How Democrats will try to end Trump’s tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/08/trump-tariffs-democrats-congress-canada.html

Bloomberg: China Extends Pause on US Tariffs and Trade Curbs for Two Months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-09/china-extends-pause-on-24-us-tariffs-to-january-keeps-10-rate

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