China to US Ocean Rates Rollover: Stable Capacity vs. Holiday Deadline Pressures - TFX Update wk. November 2, 2026

Key Takeaways

• Ocean rates hold steady. China–US West Coast rates remain above $8,000 per container, while East Coast rates exceed $9,000, with selective decreases of $100–$200.

• Space has improved. The post-holiday rush has eased, making China export bookings easier to secure.

• November may soften. Rates are expected to remain broadly stable, with gradual declines possible as seasonal inventory shipments taper.

• Holiday deadlines remain exposed. Potential port labor disruptions could delay cargo and jeopardize Black Friday and pre-Christmas deliveries.

• Air rates stay elevated. Pricing has stabilized after recent increases and is expected to remain high through year-end.

The Lead:

Late October and early November 2026 brought another major operational shift across North American borders as the revised list of 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods took effect on October 30.

The change gave relief to builders and farmers by removing taxes on plywood and farm machinery, but placed new 50% duties on items like window air conditioners, flooring, and medical goods. Because these duties continue to ignore USMCA origin rules, automotive groups ramped up lobbying in Washington to prevent an even larger 50% tariff on vehicles from taking effect on January 1, 2027. At the same time, importers raced against the clock to submit their final back-tariff recovery claims before CBP’s automated refund deadline on November 4.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Ocean freight rates between Central East Asia (CEA) and the US remain largely stable week over week, rolling over at levels consistent with trends observed throughout October. Across most major ocean carriers and lanes, spot pricing experienced minor adjustments, reflecting marginal decreases of approximately $100 to $200 per container.

CEA to USWC: Rates are holding steady in the $8,000+ range per container, exhibiting slight downward adjustments of $100–$200 depending on the specific carrier and contract agreement.

CEA to USEC: Rates continue to hover firmly in the $9,000+ range, maintaining their typical East Coast premium with nominal dips of $100–$200 compared to the previous week.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $6,300 from China to US West Coast and $7,200 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

A Closer Look:

• The October holiday rush has passed. The earlier pressure on vessel space has eased, improving booking availability from China.

• Carriers are largely rolling rates forward. November opened with pricing broadly consistent with October, with only limited adjustments.

• Space availability has improved. Freight Right reports no widespread difficulty securing sailing space on the China export lanes discussed.

• Rate reductions remain selective. Small decreases depend on the carrier and route, indicating gradual easing rather than a broad market correction.

Looking Ahead:

The Transpacific ocean freight market is anticipated to remain steady through the bulk of November, with little baseline risk of anomalous rate volatility or severe capacity shortfalls under current demand conditions. Rates are expected to hold near current levels with gradual, minor softening likely as late-season inventory flows taper off.

The primary operational variable to monitor is labor tension and potential port strike activity. While recent strike deadlines were extended to allow negotiations to continue, any breakdown in talks could cause immediate port congestion and vessel delays. BCOs and freight forwarders are advised to treat potential labor disruptions as an early-warning risk: cargo delayed at this stage faces significant exposure to missing critical retail milestones such as Black Friday and pre-Christmas store delivery windows.

China-US Air Freight Market:

China to US air freight rates have stabilized at elevated levels. The market has moved toward steadier pricing following the recent period of frequent increases.

CEA to USWC: Rates for cargo from Shanghai to Los Angeles is at approx. $7.85/kg, with Shanghai to San Francisco at $7.54/kg. Connecting services through Tokyo offer selected Los Angeles and San Francisco options at approximately $6.46/kg, depending on origin and routing.

CEA to USEC: Rates from Shanghai to New York JFK are approximately $9.08/kg on direct service. Beijing-to-JFK service through Seattle is listed at approximately $7.85/kg, with a longer transit time.

A Closer Look:

• The recent pricing surge has settled. This week’s update indicates that rates are holding at elevated levels after the earlier rounds of increases.

• Service selection creates substantial price differences. Shanghai-to-JFK direct service carries a higher quoted rate than the connecting option from Beijing through Seattle, although the origin and transit time also differ.

• Cargo characteristics affect pricing. Density, shipment weight and carton versus pallet handling influence the available rate. A lower quote may reflect different shipment conditions.

• Rate commitments remain short. The selected current quotes generally expire November 7–10 and remain subject to further airline notice. Stable market conditions do not guarantee an extended rate validity.

Looking Ahead:

Air freight rates would remain broadly stable but elevated until the year end. Stabilization offers shippers a more predictable budgeting environment, although individual departures and services may still experience price changes.

Shippers should plan around current pricing, confirm space before committing to delivery dates and revalidate quotes before booking. Where delivery schedules allow, connecting services may offer savings, provided their transit times meet the shipment’s requirements.

In the News:

Reuters: Germany's Merz says EU to shape better offer as global trade order comes under pressure
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/germanys-merz-says-eu-shape-better-offer-global-trade-order-comes-under-pressure-2026-10-30/

ABC News: US Trade Rep Greer says tariff policy 'hasn't changed' despite SCOTUS ruling
https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-trade-rep-greer-tariff-policy-hasnt-changed/story?id=130382808

CBT News: Trump and Carney signal progress toward potential US-Canada trade deal
https://www.cbtnews.com/u-s-canada-trade-deal/

Reuters: South Korea exports nearly double in October on AI investment boom
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-exports-nearly-double-october-strongest-growth-since-1974-2026-11-01/

Bloomberg: Thailand Eyes Expanding its Largest Port to Meet Trade Boom
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-02/thailand-eyes-expanding-its-largest-port-to-meet-trade-boom

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