China-US Ocean Freight Rates Hold Steady as November Easing Remains Possible - TFX Update wk. October 26, 2026

Key Takeaways

• Rates held steady. China-US ocean pricing was unchanged week over week, with spot options as low as $6,300 to the West Coast and $7,200 to the East Coast.

• Space is improving. Softer shipment volumes and more consistent vessel schedules are giving importers greater booking flexibility.

• November easing remains possible. Rates are expected to stay broadly stable through early November, with potential for modest declines.

• Urgent cargo is shifting to air. Ocean transit may miss holiday deadlines, while tighter air capacity and rising rates make last-minute replenishment more expensive.

• India still needs early booking. Capacity is improving but has not fully recovered, so importers should maintain longer lead times.

The Lead:

Trade policy last week combined selective tariff relief with continued legal and diplomatic uncertainty. Washington revised its Canadian tariff list while facing a new court challenge, and Ottawa pursued both domestic industrial support and closer commercial ties with Türkiye.

USTR proposed extending the suspension of China maritime measures, while the UK signaled continued import duty relief. USMCA labor enforcement produced concrete outcomes in Mexico, but renewed concerns over Airbus financing introduced another risk to the US–EU tariff truce.

Overall, the week brought targeted adjustments and negotiating progress without a broad resolution of the principal trade disputes.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

China to US ocean freight rates held steady during the week. Pricing carried over from last week, while space availability improved and vessel schedules became more consistent. As the traditional pre-holiday ocean shipping peak fully closes out, pricing has settled into a steady holding pattern across both coasts.

CEA to USWC: Rates remained unchanged week over week, with no increases or decreases reported.

CEA to USEC: Rates also held steady, extending the previous week’s pricing.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $6,300 from China to US West Coast and $7,200 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

A Closer Look:

• Ocean space availability is improving. Softer shipment volumes are easing pressure on capacity. Space conditions have improved gradually, giving importers more booking flexibility.

• Vessel schedules have stabilized. As recent typhoon disruptions in Asia have passed, schedules have become more consistent, helping reduce operational uncertainty.

• Urgent holiday replenishment is shifting to air. For many shipments discussed in the update, ocean transit no longer fits the required holiday delivery window. Importers needing last-minute inventory are moving smaller shipments by air, while ongoing replenishment continues by ocean.

• India remains a separate capacity concern. Space availability has improved, but conditions have not fully recovered. Importers shipping from India should continue booking early.

Looking Ahead:

China to US ocean rates are expected to remain broadly stable through the first half of November, with the possibility of modest declines. Improving space availability and more consistent schedules suggest limited near-term upward pressure on pricing.

For routine replenishment, these conditions offer greater flexibility when comparing sailings and planning bookings. Holiday-sensitive cargo requires closer attention to the full delivery timeline, including customs clearance and inland transportation. Where ocean service cannot meet the deadline, air freight remains an option, although tighter space and rising rates are increasing the cost of urgent shipments.

Importers sourcing from India should maintain longer booking lead times as capacity continues to recover.

In the News:

ABC News: Trump's 50% tariffs on Canada take effect as Carney vows to retaliate
https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-proposed-tariffs-canada-hurtle-deadline-amid-trade/story?id=135833861

CNBC: Honda warns 50% Canada auto tariffs would be catastrophic for auto industry
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/27/honda-warns-50percent-canada-auto-tariffs-would-be-catastrophic.html

WSJ: America Needs Canada’s Aluminum. Trump’s Tariff Exposed Just How Badly
https://www.wsj.com/business/aluminum-tariff-canada-trump-f2555b38

ABC News: Supreme Court invalidates most of Trump's tariffs
https://abcnews.com/Politics/supreme-court-invalidates-trumps-tariffs/story?id=129036085

Bloomberg: Trump’s Trade General Fights Back as Tariffs Become Toxic
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-10-26/trump-s-tariff-salesman-and-election-politics-of-trade

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