Golden Week Ocean Rates Hold Steady as Carriers Extend Pricing Into Mid-October - TFX Update wk. September 28, 2026

Key Takeaways

• Rates held steady. China-to-US West Coast rates remained near $8,000/FEU, while East Coast rates stayed around $10,000/FEU.

• Carriers extended pricing. Existing ocean rate structures are in place through October 14, covering the Golden Week slowdown.

• Small changes had little impact. Minor 100–200 carrier adjustments and 300–500 forwarder markups did not materially change importer costs.

• Post-holiday delays are the risk. Cargo could build up when operations resume the week of October 12, creating tighter space and pickup delays.

The Lead:

Late September saw global trade move in two very different directions. On one hand, the US and China agreed through their new Board of Trade to cut tariffs on $60 billion of non-sensitive goods and extend their trade truce into early 2027. On the other hand, trade tensions in North America grew worse. As US Customs prepared to enforce a total import ban on Canadian alcohol, dairy, and heavy motorcycles starting September 29th,

Canada set up a special program to help its businesses get tax exemptions for needed imports. Meanwhile, automotive groups warned that these rising trade barriers and high compliance requirements are adding $1,400 in direct extra costs to every vehicle made in North America.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Ocean freight rates from China to the US remained broadly stable week over week leading into the Golden Week holiday period, with ocean carriers formally extending existing rate structures through October 14th.

CEA to USWC: Spot rates are holding steady at baseline averages around $8,000 / FEU. While minor base rate adjustments of $100-$200 were announced on select lanes, and forwarder markups range from $300-$500, these slight variations remain negligible relative to overall rate levels.

CEA to USEC: Rates remain stable at baseline averages around $10,000 / FEU. Nominal rate increases of $100 – $200 on select routes have had little to no practical impact on end-importer costs, keeping effective market rates extended into mid-October.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $6,300 from China to US West Coast and $8,500 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Pre-Holiday Extension: Carriers released and extended their existing rate structures through October 14th ahead of China's Golden Week holiday to cover the non-shipping operational pause.

• Forwarder Markup Buffer: Freight forwarders are adding minor markups ranging from $300 to $500, absorbing or smoothing out minor base fluctuations for end customers.

• Pre-Holiday Rush Cutoff: Ocean cargo rushed to meet pre-holiday vessel departures early in the week, with remaining pending bookings and communications winding down by mid-week.

Looking Ahead:

The immediate market is likely to be quiet through the holiday period, with limited shipment activity and little reason for major rate movement.

The more important concern is the week of October 12th. As factories, trucking providers, terminals, and carriers return from the holiday, accumulated cargo could create backlogs, tighter space, and pickup delays. Shippers with cargo ready to move that week should plan early and avoid assuming last-minute bookings or loading requests can be accommodated.

In the News:

WSJ: Canada’s Carney Open to US Trade Deal but Won’t Give Up Right to Deepen EU Ties
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/canadas-carney-open-to-u-s-trade-deal-but-wont-give-up-right-to-deepen-eu-ties-9b08a792

Reuters: US, China agree to extend trade truce by two months, work on bigger deal.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-treasurys-bessent-chinas-he-meet-unfinished-business-before-trump-xi-summit-2026-09-23/

BBC: US ban on Canadian alcohol and dairy takes effect as trade war drags on
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm1j43y146d2o

Bloomberg: Demand Boost for US Crops Still Unclear After China Tariff Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-29/demand-boost-for-us-crops-still-unclear-after-china-tariff-cuts

NBC: China and US agree to tariff cuts on $60 billion of goods, including agriculture, household items
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/china-us-tariff-cuts-60-billion-trump-xi-rcna600214

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